Abstract: It calculates carbon emissions by using the carbon emission coefficient method, analyzes the current decoupling status between economic development and carbon emissions in Henan Province from 1978 to 2023 via an improved Tapio decoupling model, and predicts their decoupling relationships under different scenarios for 2030 and 2060 through scenario analysis and the improved Kaya model. The results indicate that: (1) From 1978 to 2023, the decoupling state was dominated by relative decoupling; (2) Under the designed plans, only the low-emission scenario will achieve absolute decoupling in 2030, while all plans will realize absolute decoupling by 2060; (3) Low-carbon transformation requires phased advancement: the short-term core should focus on "coal control and green energy expansion", while the medium-to-long term should prioritize gradual optimization of the energy structure and construction of a zero-carbon industrial system. It provides a reference for the coordinated development of economy and carbon emissions in Henan Province and similar regions under the "Dual Carbon" goals.