基于SWAT模型的热带海岛流域径流模拟研究

    Research on Runoff Simulation in Tropical Island Basins Based on the SWAT Model

    • 摘要: 用水文模型模拟流域水循环过程,是明晰水资源演变特征和开展流域水资源优化配置的重要方法。SWAT模型在干旱半干旱地区的模拟效果十分显著,然而,在以超渗产流为主、局部蓄满产流的热带海岛流域,用其进行径流模拟的实践较少。针对热带海岛复杂多变的气候条件,考虑流域河道源短流急、降雨集中以及独特植被覆盖等特点,从河网提取、子流域划分以及气象数据计算模块等方面对SWAT模型进行改进,建立海南省万泉河流域SWAT模型,并以加积(二)站作为流域出口,对模型进行参数率定和验证。结果表明,万泉河流域SWAT模型的决定性系数(R2)和纳什效率系数(NSE)在率定期(2000—2015)分别为0.95、0.95,在验证期(2016—2022)分别为0.86、0.84,汛期洪峰流量的模拟误差在15%以内。这证明了改进的SWAT模型对万泉河流域水文过程模拟具有良好的适用性。

       

      Abstract: Hydrological models for simulating watershed water cycle processes are critical tools for clarifying water resource evolution characteristics and optimizing watershed water resource allocation. The SWAT model has demonstrated excellent performance in arid and semi-arid regions; however, its application in tropical island basins—where excess infiltration runoff dominates and local saturated runoff occurs—remains limited. To address this gap, it improved the SWAT model by optimizing modules for river network extraction, sub-basin division, and meteorological data processing, accounting for tropical islands' complex climatic conditions and basin-specific features(e.g., short, rapid river channels, concentrated rainfall, and unique vegetation cover). A SWAT model was developed for the Wanquan River Basin in Hainan Province, with parameter calibration and validation conducted using data from the Jiaji(2)Station(the basin outlet). Results indicate that during the calibration period(2000-2015), the model achieved a coefficient of determination(R2)of 0.95 and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)of 0.95;during the validation period(2016–2022), R2 and NSE were 0.86 and 0.84, respectively. The simulation error of flood peak discharge during the flood season was within 15%. These findings confirm the good applicability of the improved SWAT model for hydrological process simulation in the Wanquan River Basin.

       

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