水文 "四预" 与城市洪涝防御耦合研究

    Research on the Coupling of Hydrological "Four Prerequisites" and Urban Flood Defense

    • 摘要: 将水文监测预报与城市洪涝灾害监测预警进行深度耦合, 可以提升城市洪涝灾害防御能力。剖析了上海"一网统管"防汛实践与武汉"智慧水务"建设的成功案例, 系统研究了水文"四预"(预报、预警、预演、预案)与城市洪涝防御深度耦合的内在逻辑、实践路径和发展方向。针对目前水文预报预警与城市洪涝监测预警耦合时普遍存在跨部门信息共享不畅、水文与内涝模型脱节、预警与响应联动不顺、技术与应用不匹配的"四重壁垒", 提出构建以数据一体化融合为基础、模型一体化驱动为核心、业务一体化协同为抓手、技术与应用深度融合为目标的耦合体系。

       

      Abstract: The in-depth coupling of hydrological monitoring and forecasting with urban flood disaster monitoring and early warning is crucial for improving the urban flood defense capabilities. Through a detailed analysis of the successful cases of Shanghai's "Integrated Management through One Network" in flood control and Wuhan's "Smart Water Affairs" construction, it systematically researches the internal logic, practical approaches, and development directions of the in-depth coupling between hydrological "Four Prerequisites" (Forecasting, Predicting, Pre-simulation, Pre-arranged plan) and urban flood defense. Currently, there are four common obstacles in the coupling of hydrological forecasting and predicting with urban flood monitoring and predicting: inefficient cross-departmental information sharing, a lack of connection between hydrological and urban waterlogging models, ineffective linkage between predicting and response, and a mismatch between technology and its application. To address these issues, it proposes a coupling system. This system is founded on the integrated integration of data, centered around the integrated drive of models, facilitated by the integrated coordination of operations, and targeted at the deep integration of technology and application.

       

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