芜湖市1971~2015年降水变化趋势及突变性分析

    Rainfall Change Trend and Mutation Analysis in Wuhu from 1971 to 2015

    • 摘要: 运用线性倾向估计法、累积距平法、t检验法、M-K突变检验法对芜湖市1971~2015年(45年)的降水观测资料进行变化趋势及突变特性分析。结果表明:芜湖市年均降水量呈增加趋势;年内降水主要集中在春夏两季,不同季节降水量分别占全年降水量的27.5%(春)、42.9%(夏)、16.7%(秋)、12.9%(冬);春、夏、冬季的降水变化为典型的多峰型,秋季的降水变化为单峰型;春季、冬季降水发生突变,夏季、秋季、年均未发生突变;2004年是春季降水序列减少突变点,1988年是冬季降水序列增加突变点。

       

      Abstract: It uses the method of linear tendency estimate,cumulative departure,t test and the M-K mutation test to analyze change trend and mutation feature of rainfall observation data in Wuhu from 1971-2015(45).The result shows that:(1)The annual rainfall in Wuhu is increasing.(2)The rainfall mainly concentrated in the spring and summer.The rainfall in different seasons accounts for the annual rainfall of 27.5%(spring),42.9%(summer),16.7%(autumn)and 12.9%(winter).(3)Spring,summer and winter rainfall change is typical multimodal model,and the autumn season is unimodal type.(4)Spring and winter rainfall appear mutation,summer,autumn and average don’t.The year of 2004 is the spring rainfall sequence reducing mutation point,and the year of 1988 is the winter rainfall sequence increasing mutation point.

       

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